Scenario planning involves both divergent and convergent thinking
24
Orient
• Clarify the issue at stake – focal question
• Use the focal question as an orienting
device throughout the remaining phases
1
Explore
• Explore "driving forces“/external drivers – that
will shape the focal question.
• Driving forces can be either "predetermined
elements“ or “uncertainties”
2
Synthesize
• Create scenario framework based on the two most
important and "critical" uncertainties.
• Adopt an iterative approach to arrive at a strong
platform on which to explore the relevant futures
• Develop the scenarios narratives
3
Act
• Use the scenarios to test and develop
strategies and set priorities
• Assess: what actions can be taken today to
prepare across all possible alternatives?
• which actions can catalyze a desirable future or
mitigate a negative one?
4
Monitor
Track shifts in the environment and adjust strategy
accordingly.
Identify and track a few 'leading indicators’ that can
indicate which future is beginning to unfold.
5
24
Orient
• Clarify the issue at stake – focal question
• Use the focal question as an orienting
device throughout the remaining phases
1
Explore
• Explore "driving forces“/external drivers – that
will shape the focal question.
• Driving forces can be either "predetermined
elements“ or “uncertainties”
2
Synthesize
• Create scenario framework based on the two most
important and "critical" uncertainties.
• Adopt an iterative approach to arrive at a strong
platform on which to explore the relevant futures
• Develop the scenarios narratives
3
Act
• Use the scenarios to test and develop
strategies and set priorities
• Assess: what actions can be taken today to
prepare across all possible alternatives?
• which actions can catalyze a desirable future or
mitigate a negative one?
4
Monitor
Track shifts in the environment and adjust strategy
accordingly.
Identify and track a few 'leading indicators’ that can
indicate which future is beginning to unfold.
5
