Illustrative Policy Drivers (2025-2035)
19
Driver P10 (or limited impact) P90 (or high impact)
Federal policy
commitment to
energy transition
Limited or volatile (Trump) High commitment
(Biden/Obama)
State policies Inconsistent High consistency
Administrative
state
Chevron deference
litigated/limited change
Significant narrowing of
federal agency deference
International
climate
agreement
None Global climate commitments
EPA GHG
Regulations
Overturned Upheld
US Carbon Price $0/ton ~$100/ton
Trade/labor
influence
Domestic content/prevailing
wage requirements
Market driven