Scenario analysis is suited for managing uncertainty and complexity
Scenario
Thinking/Analysis
• A strategy development/ decision making approach based on
the use of alternative views (scenarios) about the future
• Scenarios are provocative and plausible accounts of how
relevant external forces might interact and evolve to prepare
for potential disruptions/discontinuities
• Best used for managing/adapting to big changes
• Adopted by the military in 1940s
• Made famous by scenario planners at Royal Dutch/Shell in the
early 70s
• Increasingly adopted by corporations and large organizations
to manage increasing uncertainty and complexity
Practice
Evolution
• Take a long-term view, beyond the 1-3 year planning horizons
• Think from “outside-in“, taking into consideration external
factors that can disrupt the industry
• Embrace multiple perspectives to get a thorough
understanding of potential threats and opportunities
Fundamental
Principles 23
Scenario
Thinking/Analysis
• A strategy development/ decision making approach based on
the use of alternative views (scenarios) about the future
• Scenarios are provocative and plausible accounts of how
relevant external forces might interact and evolve to prepare
for potential disruptions/discontinuities
• Best used for managing/adapting to big changes
• Adopted by the military in 1940s
• Made famous by scenario planners at Royal Dutch/Shell in the
early 70s
• Increasingly adopted by corporations and large organizations
to manage increasing uncertainty and complexity
Practice
Evolution
• Take a long-term view, beyond the 1-3 year planning horizons
• Think from “outside-in“, taking into consideration external
factors that can disrupt the industry
• Embrace multiple perspectives to get a thorough
understanding of potential threats and opportunities
Fundamental
Principles 23
