Committee of Chief Risk Officers 8000 Research Forest Dr. info@ccro.org STE 115 #278 http://ccro.org The Woodlands, TX 77380 4 Advancing Our Energy Industry’s Risk &Compliance Best Practices Second, generation side. There's no solar at night of course. So, you're really at that point going to be relying on intermittent wind. The resulting volatility is huge. I think it's going to get worse in a lot of markets because the electrification policy is going to drive greater power consumption that shifts peaks off from what we're historically used to. Third reliability component is storage. Wind is unstable. Solar's unstable. I believe it was NREL that said, we need about 300 gigawatts of storage. That's a, a massive number. Actually way outside the bounds of industrial policy to produce if you actually add up all the minerals required for that. What most people don't understand though is we don't measure batteries in gigawatts. We care about hours, right? It's how much we can deliver and for how long. Yet it seems everybody's really focused on the first one. Maybe because it's easy to size a battery. It's really hard to figure out what that duration looks like. I always think about can we run overnight, right? Sort of eight to 10 hour plus when you come to large scale fail. Well, only about 12 to 14% of what's going in by 2040 can theoretically meet that duration. That's what we're looking at for eight hour or greater duration storage. We don't have enough storage. So, to recap, we've got lots and lots of unreliable renewable generation going in. We have lots of new power demand. But we don't necessarily understand how it all works. Then cap it all off. The grid is over capacity. Another NREL study says basically you hang one EV with a class two charger off the average US home distribution transformer, and you are at or over capacity. So, the grid is under-invested and all of this is going to come back the bite to people in this room. We're creating more demand. We're not necessarily creating supply. We're all going to get whipsawed commercially in the middle. CCRO Member: Can, can hydrogen be part of the solution as a long-term storage for like green hydrogen? You know, if you overbuild the renewables? Andy Roehr: I'm working on a couple of hydrogen projects right now, full disclosure. What people are starting to figure out is hydrogen as a storage solution is an interesting idea, but you can't run electrolyzers like you can Bitcoin mining, for example. You're not going to turn your electrolyzers on and off based on market price. That's just not going to happen. So yes, in theory. But if you're going to use it for standby storage, you must deal with the issue of leakage, which can be fairly high even with today's technology. Also, embrittlement is an issue for the underlying infrastructure. Then there is the fundamental density. A gallon of gas is about a hundred times denser than a cubic meter of non liquified hydrogen. So, you need a lot of storage for hydrogen. And, it tends to go away, it's a molecule problem. You're not going to turn your electrolyzers on and off based on market price